CLIMATE ANALYSIS AS STATISTICAL SUBSIDIES FOR THE DISCUSSION ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND COFFEE PRODUCTION: THE CASE STUDY OF CAMPINAS-SP

Abstract

The greater occurrence and intensity of extreme weather events can become coffee production impossible in some areas of the state of São Paulo. The study analyzed statistically trends in precipitation and temperature from 1990 to 2020 for Campinas-SP. Analyzes were performed for the summer and winter seasons. To observe trends in the series, Menn-Kendall and Pettitt tests were performed, in addition to calculations for temperature indices: Summer Days (SU); and another for precipitation: the Count Consecutive Dry Days (CDD). A trend towards an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures and a decrease in precipitation was identified for both seasons of the year. The SU index showed the highest number of days with temperatures above 25°C. In winter, the highest maximum temperatures were concentrated in August, and the lowest minimum temperatures in July. For precipitation, the CDD index pointed to a higher concentration of days with precipitation less than or equal to 1 mm in the last years of the series. Were observed significant changes in temperature and precipitation patterns for the municipality, which can be decisive in coffee production in the region, which still has a strong economic contribution, due to the cultural and tourist value of this product.