ANÁLISE ECONÔMICA DE CASOS DE COGERAÇÃO DE ENERGIA

Abstract

In order to invest in equipment purchases and process retrofits, there must be a study to identify the feasibility of the project. Some indicators facilitate decision making, such as IRR, NPV, ROIC and project payback, by analyzing these parameters, the time of return on invested capital under the conditions of a determined attractiveness rate and the investor’s profitability in the investment horizon. In this work, 42 cases of cogeneration were simulated after modifications in the thermal system of a plant, considering conditions of vegetable impurity and bagasse moisture, as result of this simulation, the increase in electrical energy was obtained for each case. Then, the revenue from the increase in energy sales was calculated for five price ranges (R$ 150.00/MWh, R$ 180.00/MWh, R$ 210.00/MWh, R$ 240.00/MWh and R$ 270.00/MWh), as well as operational, financial and investment costs. For the economic analysis, cash flows were established in each of the 42 cases, in the five energy price ranges, having as conclusions at the end of the study that for the use of straw in 10, 12 and 14%, the attractiveness is increased, and, in the best case we have an IRR of 23.12% and a payback period of less than 6 years. The energy value is an impact factor in the study, the project is only viable for energy values over than R$ 210.00/MWh, above the price currently practiced. The initial uncertainty of the energy market also brings difficulties in leveraging the project, since it’s a project with a high initial cost profile.