Irriga, Botucatu, v. 26, n. 4, p. 801-813, outubro-dezembro, 2021 801

ISSN 1808-8546 (ONLINE) 1808-3765 (CD-ROM)

HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS IN VOLTA REDONDA

HUGO THANER DOS SANTOS1 E SERGIO NASCIMENTO DUARTE2

1Direção de Ensino, Instituto Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rua José Breves, 550, Centro, 27197-000, Pinheiral, RJ, Brasil. hugo.santos@ifrj.edu.br

2Departamento de Engenharia de Biossistemas, Universidade de São Paulo, Avenida Pádua Dias, 11, São Dimas, 13418-900, Piracicaba, SP, Brasil. snduarte@usp.br

1ABSTRACT

Cities do not implement proper drainage management practices due to lack of planning or of literature on hydrological issues. Volta Redonda fits this context, since it experiences several extreme rainfall events. The aims are to investigate whether the maximum daily rainfall rates have increased in intensity over the years, to adjust the annual maximum daily rainfall events to a probability distribution model and to generate hydrological data to favor the design of surface drainage. Data deriving from a pluviometric station located in the herein assessed county were used in the current study. Mann-Kendell Test and Gumbel distribution were applied to the analyzed series. The most rainfall events recorded values ranging from 60 mm to 80 mm; 95% of the maximum annual daily rainfall events accounted for values lower than 125 mm. Gumbel’s α and β recorded 69.9 and 17.9, respectively. The herein analyzed rainfall series can be considered stationary, although it presented clear upward trend from 1960 to 1999. Results in the current study can be used to help developing drainage systems in Volta Redonda; it is recommended using mean rainfall intensity of 150 mm h-1 for small urban drainage structures, whenever it is not possible estimating runoff concentration time.

Keywords: conurbation, extreme events, Gumbel, Southern Rio de Janeiro State.

SANTOS, H.T.; DUARTE, S.N.

CHUVAS INTENSAS EM VOLTA REDONDA

2 RESUMO

As cidades não exercem uma adequada gestão da drenagem, devido à ausência de um planejamento ou falta de bibliografia hidrológica. Volta Redonda enquadra-se nessa situação, apresentando diversos eventos pluviométricos extremos. Os objetivos foram verificar se as chuvas máximas diárias têm aumentado em intensidade ao longo dos anos, ajustar as chuvas diárias máximas anuais a um modelo de distribuição de probabilidades e gerar dados hidrológicos que favoreçam o dimensionamento de sistemas de drenagem superficial.

Utilizaram-se dados pluviométricos de um posto da cidade. A essa série foi aplicado o Teste de Mann-Kendell e a distribuição de Gumbel. Os maiores eventos de chuvas intensas apresentaram valores de 60 a 80 mm e 95% dos eventos de chuva máxima diária anual são menores que 125 mm. Os coeficientes α e β de Gumbel são, respectivamente, 69,9 e 17,9. A série pluviométrica pode ser considerada estacionária, embora tenha havido uma franca tendência ascendente de 1960 a 1999. Os resultados obtidos nesse estudo podem ser utilizados Recebido em 15/08/2021 e aprovado para publicação em 20/10/2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15809/irriga.2021v26n4p801-813

802 Heavy rainfall...

na elaboração de sistemas de drenagem de Volta Redonda, sendo recomendado o uso de uma intensidade média de 150 mm h-1 para pequenas estruturas de drenagem urbana, quando não é possível estimar o tempo de concentração do escoamento superficial.

Palavras-chave: conurbação, eventos extremos,Gumbel, Sul Fluminense.

3 INTRODUCTION

Lack of urban planning leads to

disorderly city growth, which, in its turn, Urban drainage was approached in a

increases damage caused by floods, since trivial manner for several years, both in lack of data about intense rainfall events Brazil and abroad; mainly when it comes to

leads to doubts or errors in urban drainage land use associated with urbanization.

projects (CHOI; KANG; KIM, 2021;

Consequently, nowadays, several urban

COELHO; ZUFFO, 2021; DIAZ et al.,

zones are susceptible to flooding or

2020; MENDES et al., 2018).

landslides whenever they are subjected to The aforementioned increase in

intense rainfall events, a fact that has been rainfall intensity rates can be associated often observed, for example, in the

with faster convective rainfall formation metropolitan region of São Paulo, where processes, which result from increased

one finds several flooded places due to latent-heat flows from urban surface into surface drainage failures after intense

the atmosphere, from variability in regional rainfall events (CERÓN et al., 2021;

microclimate, or even from likely global MARENGO et al., 2020).

climate change (DIAZ et al., 2020;

Floods in cities are favored by

MARENGO et al., 2020; RODRIGUES et

excessive soil sealing. In addition, the al., 2019).

reduced number of permeable zones

Volta Redonda County is one of the

increases both surface runoff and extreme most urbanized regions in Rio de Janeiro water flow volumes, a fact that renders State; it always witness drainage issues drainage structures undersized and with low

throughout the year due to heavy rainfall rainwater runoff potential (CERÓN et al., events, a fact that was already broadcasted 2021;

CHOI;

KANG;

KIM,

2021;

by different media in Southern Rio de

TERASSI et al., 2020).

Janeiro State. Although the county often Recently, there has been noticeable

experiences floods and landslides due to intensification of flood events in several heavy rainfall events, its rainfall data are places in Brazil, both in terms of frequency not analyzed and used to solve its rainwater and magnitude of flows, and such a process

infrastructure issues.

often overrides urban drainage systems’

Based on the drainage planning

capacity, as observed in Campos do Jordão

context, the hydrological modeling of

and in the Brazilian Northeastern coast hypothetical future scenarios incorporating (MENDES et al., 2018; ESPINOZA et al., the effects of likely increase in heavy 2021). According to the aforementioned

rainfall

events

can

emphasize

the

authors,

these

places

have

already

weaknesses of hydrological estimates, since

experienced landslide and flood events due underestimating intense rainfall events can to slow rainfall runoff resulting from the lead to surface runoff flows and volumes poorly planned urbanization of drainage

below the ones expected in the project. This basins (CERÓN et al., 2021; CHOI;

factor

can

render

hydraulic

works

KANG; KIM, 2021; PEREZ et al., 2020).

insufficient, make drainage master plans non-assertive, as well as favor flood and Irriga, Botucatu, v. 26, n. 4, p. 801-813, outubro-dezembro, 2021

Santos e Duarte 803

landslide events in different cities (CHOI; 4.1. Investigating heavy rainfall events in KANG; KIM, 2021; DIAZ et al., 2020;

Volta Redonda and determining its

KOURTIS; TSIHRINTZIS, 2021).

maximum daily rainfall rates

Based on these aspects, the aims of

the current study were to (i) assess intense Volta Redonda County hosts a

rainfall events observed in Volta Redonda rainfall station belonging to the National County in order to investigate whether there Water Agency; the station is located at is trend to break the series’ stationarity, as geographic coordinates (22° 30’ 04’’S; 44°

well as (ii) to find intense rainfall values 05’ 31’’W) and altitude of 360 m

based on rainfall duration and return period.

(AGÊNCIA NACIONAL DE ÁGUAS,

It was done to help the organized planning 2009).Itstarted operating on December 1st, of the urban expansion vector in this

1943; it has a rain gauge (Ville de Paris) county, to enable elaborating propositions and all rainfall data are available at ANA’s and taking structural and non-structural HidroWeb Portal.

actions to control floods, as well as to help Historical time series of 76 annual

promoting the safety of both the population

maximum daily rainfall (P1d) was generated

and the urban infrastructure already in place based on daily rainfall data from 1944 to in Volta Redonda County.

2019. The

study

of

rainfall

series

initiallyincluded qualitative data assessment

through

descriptive

statistics

(ASSIS;

4 MATERIALS AND METHODS

ARRUDA; PEREIRA, 1996; ASSIS et al.,

2016).

Subsequently,

rainfall

data

Volta Redonda County is located

normalitywas analyzed (SHAPIRO; WILK,

inSouthern Rio de JaneiroState, on the

1965) to assess whether rainfall trends are highway route of the two largest Brazilian statistically significant over time.

cities, namely: São Paulo and Rio de

Janeiro.It is one of the most influential 4.2. Time trend analysis

State counties in national economydue to its steel industry, in addition to being part of Mann-Kendall

non-parametric

Paraíba do Sul River Basin. Climate in the statistical test (MANN, 1945; KENDALL,

county is classified as humid subtropical: 1975), at 5% significance level,was used to

dry winter and wet summer (Cwa); mean

investigate time trend incidence in the annual temperature ranges from 20°C to

hydrological historical series of annual 1-22°C, whereas total annual rainfall ranges day maximum rainfall (P1d) applied to

from 1,300 mm to 1,600 mm and annual

Volta Redonda County.

reference evapotranspiration from 1,000

The MK test was carried out based

mm to 1,250 mm(ALVARES et al., 2013;

on the methodology by Gocic and

AGEVAP, 2013). Volta Redonda is among

Trajkovic (2013).Lack of positive or

the

counties

most

heavily

affected

negative trend in the maximum daily

byextreme rainfall events recorded in 2019,

rainfall series applied to Volta Redonda when a great flood and several landslides Countywas taken as hypothesis H0.

have caused several infrastructural damages

to the population living in Southeastern 4.3. Theoretical probability distribution Brazil.

of maximum rainfall events

The likely incidence of maximum

extreme rainfall events was estimatedbased onFisher-Tippett

type

I

distribution,

Irriga, Botucatu, v. 26, n. 4, p. 801-813, outubro-dezembro, 2021

804 Heavy rainfall...

commonly known as Gumbel (1958)

series of daily rainfall events (P1,d).

(ASSIS; ARRUDA; PEREIRA, 1996;

Maximum daily rainfall rate was

LIMA et al., 2012) (Equations 1 and

converted into 24-hour rainfall event (P24) 2).Gumbel distribution parameters α and

by multiplying daily rainfall rate by the βwere estimated based onmethods such as conversion factor proposed by Weiss

moments,

regression,

Lieblein

and

(1964) – equivalentto 1.143 - in order to likelihood (ASSIS et al., 1996; BEIJO et estimate the maximum likely rainfall events

al., 2005; LIEBLEIN, 1953).

with duration “d” (Pd,TR).

Rainfall transformation coefficients

x 



1

(f) proposed by Genovez et al.(1994), and



f ( x)   e

(1)

cited byZuffo and Leme (2004), were used to transform P24rainfall eventinto rainfall event of any duration (Pd,Tr) (Equation 3).

 x 



 e 

F( x)  e

(2)

f 

1

.

0 694ln  d  

1

.

0 937 (3)

Wherein:

Wherein:

f(x) is the probability distribution function; x f is the multiplicative transformation factor is the rainfall volume (mm); α and β are the of rainfall event (P24) used for rainfall Gumbel distribution parameters;

events of shorter duration (Pd), it is F(x) is the probability function of rainfall dimensionless; d is the intended rainfall event incidence higher (+) or lower (-) than duration, in minutes.

that of a given rainfall volume (mm).

Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test was

5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

applied to assess whether P1d data have

well-fitted

the

Gumbel

theoretical

Figure 1 shows the maximum daily

probability

distribution

(BIRNBAUM,

rainfall rate recorded for the 76-year series, 1952). Probabilities estimated through

as well as the 5-year moving mean

Gumbel distribution were evaluated based calculated to damper down low annual

on the empirical function of the KS test, by variations and to better reveal rainfall using data deriving from the historical trends.There was strong ascending period series of annual maximum rainfall events, from 1964 to 1998, although values have at

5%

significance

level

(ASSIS;

decreased later. Mean rainfall rate recorded ARRUDA; PEREIRA, 1996).

for P1,d values in Volta Redonda hasreached

After the Gumbel model distribution

80.1 mm, whereas standard deviation was was elaborated and tested, maximum daily equal to 23.2 mm -the highest daily

rainfall was recorded for the return periods maximum rainfall incidence in Volta

of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100 and 500 years (LIMA et

Redonda was observed on February 14th,

al., 2012).

1995 (152 mm). Months from October to

March are the ones recording the highest 4.4. Calculation of heavy rainfall for incidence of rainfall events; they also durations shorter than, or equal to, 24

recorded the highest maximum daily

hours

rainfall values in Volta Redonda - these rainfall events were always higher than 81

Maximum likely rainfall events

mm.

lasting less than, or equal to, 24 hours (Pd,TR) were calculated based on historical Irriga, Botucatu, v. 26, n. 4, p. 801-813, outubro-dezembro, 2021

Santos e Duarte 805

Figure 1. Annual maximum daily rainfall (in blue) and 5-year moving average (in red), Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

160

Measured annual maximum daily rainfall

Moving mean (5 years)

140

120

)m 100

(m

ent

80

all ev

ainf

60

R

40

20

0

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

Year

Table 1 shows Mann-Kendall test results differences in values recorded for the full recorded for different periods. It is possible set of 76 years, i.e., the pluviometric series seeing significant results from 1963 to of Volta Redonda can be considered

1981, when values were typically upward, stationary (p > 0.05) from 1944 to 2019

unlike what was observed from 2001 and (Table 1).

2019. However, there was not significant Table 1. Mann-Kendall trend test for 5-year moving mean applied to maximum daily rainfall events, Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

Period

τ

p-value

1944-2019

0.871

1.043

1944-1962

0.287

0.576

1963-1981

0.025

0.051

1982-2000

0.416

0.834

2001-2019

0.0008

0.00016

Parameters

composing

Gumbel

collected in Volta Redonda County. Thus, it

distribution equations are shown in Table 2.

was possible estimating heavy rainfall

They were obtained through all four

events

based

on

the

local

reality.

methodologies applied to rainfall data

Irriga, Botucatu, v. 26, n. 4, p. 801-813, outubro-dezembro, 2021

806 Heavy rainfall...

Table 2. Gumbel distribution equation coefficients,Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil. Data from 1944 to 2019.

Method

α

β

Moments

69.7

18.1

Regression

69.3

19.5

Lieblein

70.9

15.9

Likelihood

69.7

18.1

This procedure provides the county

events, mainly in tourist districts such as with local hydrological information to

Mambucaba and Bracuhy.According to the

support projects such asrainwater drainage aforementionedauthors,

heavy

rainfall

networks, civil construction and soil

events in Angra dos Reis reach rateshigher conservation

works.According

than 130 mm; theytake place during the toSentelhaset

al.

(1998),rainfall

data

high tourist season in the city. They advise analysis based on continuous quantitative public authorities in Angra dos Reis to plan distributions enables better measuring

land use in such a way that areas favoring surface runoff and helps increasing urban rainfall runoff were not occupied.Thus, it is drainage accuracy.

possible seeing that Volta Redonda is not Lima et al.(2021) have investigated

the only county in Southern Rio de Janeiro

heavy rainfall events in Rio de Janeiro State State presenting infrastructure issues due to and emphasized that collecting rainfall data heavy rainfall events, as well as rainfall in situ is essential to help planning long-data observation limited to flood and

term urban works, soil conservation

natural disaster cases.

projects, as well as to better understand Siciliano et al.(2018) have analyzed

climate variabilityin the region.

rainfall data from several neighborhoods in It is important emphasizing that the

Rio de Janeiro City.According to them,

herein used data derived from the oldest neighborhoods presenting the highest flora rain gauge in the county, which is located conservation

levels

and

the

largest

beside limnimetric rulers installed inParaíba population recorded the highest rainfall do Sul River, as well asbyone of the main volume values.Thus, the aforementioned

viaducts in the county.Two rain gauges

researchers reported that understanding the were installed by CEMADEN in different

rainfall regime of a given city requires neighborhoods

in

Volta

Redonda

rainfall monitoring in situ. Consequently, it County,backin July 2018. It was done to is necessary analyzing city’s land use

monitor the likely incidence of natural system

to

better

understand

rainfall

disasters, since the county has long history formation in them, as well as paying

of floods in its main streets.Thus, it is attention to rainfall event duration to help possible seeing that rainfall monitoring in preventing natural disasters.

Brazil has been traditionally used to prevent According

to

Mattosand

Silva

natural disasters, rather than to use rainfall (2016), it is necessary monitoring rainfall data for the technical substantiation of events in Brazilian cities on a daily

public and private construction works

basis,because the incidence of heavyrainfall (COSTA et al., 2018).

events is overall preceded by rainy days. In According to Farias and Alves

other words, if a given year presents

(2019), the nearby coastal city to Volta frequent rainfall events, heavy rainfall Redonda, Angra dos Reis, also presents

events are highly likely to take place insuch several rainfall issuesdue toheavy rainfall anobservation

year.The

aforementioned

Irriga, Botucatu, v. 26, n. 4, p. 801-813, outubro-dezembro, 2021

Santos e Duarte 807

authorsobserved

this

phenomenon

in

adherence

to

Gumbel

distribution

counties close to Volta Redonda, such as (p<0.05).It is essential emphasizing that the Rio Claro, Angra dos Reis and Paraty.Thus,

highest observed and expected frequencies they reported that heavy rainfall events of heavy rainfall events in Volta Redonda were recordedin years presenting regular County have corresponding values ranging incidence of rainfall events.

from 60 mm to 80 mm, as well as that 95%

Figure 2 presents the adjustment of

of annual maximum daily rainfall cases

maximum daily rainfall events to Gumbel recorded in Volta Redonda County were

distribution. According to the Kolmogorov-

lower than, or equal to, 124 mm.

Smirnov test, observed data have shown

Figure 2. Gumbel distribution of annual maximum daily rainfalls, Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

35

30

Observed

25

Expected

ync 20

quereF 15

10

5

0

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Annual maximum daily rainfall (mm)

In addition, Volta Redonda County

reached 25.0 mm. This volume corresponds

presented rainfall values that can lead to to mean rainfall intensity of 150 mm h-1

flood and landslide events. Furthermore, (Table

4).

Thus,

whenever

the

expected rainfall frequencies must be taken concentration time of structures is not into consideration at the time to size calculated in pre-projects of urban drainage, rainwater drainage networks in Volta

the conservative criterion of adoption of an Redonda (PETRUCCI; OLIVEIRA, 2019).

mean intensity of 150 mm h-1 can be

Rain gauges from the CEMADEN

implemented (GENOVEZ, 2010).

quantify rainfall events every 10 minutes, it Design of urban drainage involves

is possible to observe at Table 3 the volume an estimate of heavy rainfall for return of 10 minutes rainfall recorded for a return periods. However, many cities in the

period of 10 years in Volta Redonda

interior of Brazil do not have local

Irriga, Botucatu, v. 26, n. 4, p. 801-813, outubro-dezembro, 2021

808 Heavy rainfall...

intensity-duration-frequency equations. In Paraíba Valley frequently use the value of public bidding for rainwater drainage

150 mm h-1 to ensure a standardizing of the

works, it is common for the municipal

preliminary urban drainage projects that government bid notice to already establish will be prepared by the participating

the value of heavy rainfall to be used in the companies at bid (GENOVEZ, 2010).

urban drainage design. Some cities in

Table 3. Rainfall (mm) based on duration and return period, Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

Return period (T) (years)

Duration (t) (min)

2

5

10

50

100

500

10

17.1

22.1

25.0

32.6

35.6

42.7

20

27.4

35.3

39.9

52.1

57.0

68.2

30

33.4

43.1

48.7

63.5

69.4

83.2

60

43.7

56.3

63.7

83.0

90.8

108.7

120

53.9

69.5

78.6

102.5

112.0

134.2

180

59.9

77.2

87.3

113.9

124.5

149.1

360

70.1

90.5

102.3

133.4

145.8

174.7

720

80.4

103.7

117.2

152.9

167.2

200.2

1,080

86.4

111.5

126.0

164.3

179.7

215.2

1,440

87.3

112.6

127.3

166.0

181.5

217.4

T – return period; t – rainfall event duration

Table 4. Rainfall intensity (mm h-1) based on duration and return period, Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

Return period (T) (years)

Duration (t) (min)

2

5

10

50

100

500

10

102.6

132.6

150.0

195.6

213.6

256.2

20

82.2

105.9

119.7

156.3

171.0

204.6

30

66.8

86.2

97.4

127.0

138.8

166.4

60

43.7

56.3

63.7

83.0

90.8

108.7

120

27.0

34.8

39.3

51.3

56.0

67.1

180

20.0

25.7

29.1

38.0

41.5

49.7

360

11.7

15.1

17.1

22.2

24.3

29.1

720

6.7

8.6

9.8

12.7

13.9

16.7

1,080

4.8

6.2

7.0

9.1

10.0

12.0

1,440

3.6

4.7

5.3

6.9

7.6

9.1

T –return period; t –rainfall event duration Lana and Montandon (2018) have

to landslides in the region. Based on results analyzed landslides in Southern Rio de

in the current study and on data presented Janeiro State based on rainfall rates

in Table 3, and according to Lana and recorded in the region. They concluded that

Montandon (2018), it is possible seeing that rainfall events with accumulated volume

Volta Redonda County presents rainfall that

higher than 40 mm, within 24 hours, are can lead to landslide; in other words, unsettling, since they can lead to erosion or Irriga, Botucatu, v. 26, n. 4, p. 801-813, outubro-dezembro, 2021

Santos e Duarte 809

rainfallhigher than 40 mm within 1,440

in Retiro district, the catastrophic rainfall minutes.

event

from

April

7th,

2019,

There is evident incidence of

recordedduration of 210 minutes, i.e., the erosion and mud formation on the main

rainfall intensity in that night was equal to streets of Volta Redonda County after

27.6 mm h-1.It is possible observing in rainfall events taking place at night. Três Tables 3 and 4 that this rainfall event had Poços neighborhood is an example of

return period equal to 38 years and 4

erosion incidence. On the other hand, there months;in other words, this rainfall event is frequent mud formation at the border of will likely happen again in Volta Redonda Retiro and Açude neighborhoods and in

County.Thus, the Local Government should

Santo Agostinho. Lack of soil conservation

make proper investments in the county’s practices in Volta Redonda and the

rainwater drainage infrastructure to avoid unplanned occupation of urban areas are the

flood events and landslides on urban streets, main factors causing landslides in the

based on rainfall data collected in the county.It is also necessary keeping in mind county.

that the surface drainage network is not Results presented in Tables 3 and 4

subjectedto

periodic

maintenance

to

can be used by the Civil Defense, by public

guarantee the sized rainwater drainage

and private construction and urban planning

capacity, as well as that this network is companies to size construction works and pressured by the unplanned occupation of urban drainage systems for Volta Redonda different areas in the county (LIMA et al., County; therefore, rainwater drainage

2021).

routes must bedesigned based on rainfall In addition, based on data presented

data collected in the county.In addition, in Table 3, rainfall events higher than 70

land use must be carried out rationally mm will be exceeded in a 5-year forecast, byobserving soil hydraulic conductivity to when their duration may beequal to 2 hours.

avoid floods, erosion and landslides

Thus, it is possible understanding the

(PETRUCCI; OLIVEIRA, 2019).

catastrophic results of the rainfall event that

took place in Volta Redonda County, on

April 8th, 2019.According to data from

6 CONCLUSIONS

CEMADEN, the heaviest rainfall event was

recorded

in

April

2019;

itreached

a) Although there was clear upward trend of

totalvolume of 96.7 mm at 3 hours.

heavy rainfall events from the 1960s to the According to report published in the

early 2000s, it has been decreasing in the newspaper Diário do Vale (CHUVA…,

last 20 years, to an extent that, ifone takes 2019), the rainfallevent recorded between intoconsideration the full period, the

April 7th and 8th, 2019accounted for several pluviometric series of Volta Redonda

landslides in different neighborhoods and County can be considered stationary;and

for flood events in the main streets of the county.According to thisreport, the urban b) Results in the current study can be used drainage

system

did

not

have

to help developing rainwater drainage

enoughrainwater

capture

capacity

to

systems forVolta Redonda County. It is

prevent damages to the local infrastructure recommended using mean rainfall intensity due to high-intensity rainfall events (Table of 150 mm h-1 for small structures,

4).

wheneverthe runoff concentration time is According to data presented by

not calculated.

CEMADEN pluviograph, which is located

Irriga, Botucatu, v. 26, n. 4, p. 801-813, outubro-dezembro, 2021

810 Heavy rainfall...

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CHOI, Y.; KANG, J.; KIM, J. Urban flood adaptation planning for local governments: Hydrology analysis and optimization. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Londres, v. 59, n. 2, p. 102213, 2021.

CHUVA provoca caos nas ruas de Volta Redonda que estão tomadas por mato e lama. Diário do Vale, Volta Redonda, 8 abr.2019. Availableat: https://diariodovale.com.br/tempo-

real/chuva-provoca-caos-nas-ruas-de-volta-redonda-que-estao-tomadas-por-mato-e-lama/.

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GUMBEL, E. J. Statistics of extremes. New York: Columbia University, 1958. 375 p.

KENDALL, M. G. Rank correlation methods. London: Griffin, 1975. 202 p.

KOURTIS, I. M.; TSIHRINTZIS, V. A. Adaptation of urban drainage networks to climate change: A review. Science ofthe Total Environment, Londres, v. 771, n. 3, p. 145431, 2021.

LANA, J. C.; MONTANDON, L. F. Influência da pluviosidade na deflagração de movimentos de massa na região Sul Fluminense. Revista Técnico-Científica do CREA-PR, Curitiba, v.especial, p. 1-13, 2018.

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Irriga, Botucatu, v. 26, n. 4, p. 801-813, outubro-dezembro, 2021

812 Heavy rainfall...

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Document Outline

- HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS IN VOLTA REDONDA

- HUGO THANER DOS SANTOS1 E SERGIO NASCIMENTO DUARTE2

- 1ABSTRACT

- SANTOS, H.T.; DUARTE, S.N.

- CHUVAS INTENSAS EM VOLTA REDONDA

- 2 RESUMO

- 3 INTRODUCTION

- 4 MATERIALS AND METHODS

- 4.1. Investigating heavy rainfall events in Volta Redonda and determining its maximum daily rainfall rates

- 4.2. Time trend analysis

- 4.3. Theoretical probability distribution of maximum rainfall events

- 4.4. Calculation of heavy rainfall for durations shorter than, or equal to, 24 hours

- 5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

- Figure 1.Annual maximum daily rainfall (in blue) and 5-year moving average (in red), Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

- Table 1.Mann-Kendall trend test for 5-year moving mean applied to maximum daily rainfall events, Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

- Table 2.Gumbel distribution equation coefficients,Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil. Data from 1944 to 2019.

- Figure 2.Gumbel distribution of annual maximum daily rainfalls, Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

- T – return period; t – rainfall event duration

- Table 4.Rainfall intensity (mm h-1) based on duration and return period, Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

- 6 CONCLUSIONS

- 7 REFERENCES

- AGEVAP. Plano integrado de recursos hídricos da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Paraíba do Sul e planos de ação de recursos hídricos das bacias afluentes. Resende: AGEVAP, 2013. 149 p.

- ALVARES, C. A.; STAPE, J. L.; SENTELHAS, P. C.; GONÇALVES, J. L. M.; SPAROVEK, G. Köppen's climate classification map for Brazil. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Berlin, v. 22, n. 6, p. 711-728, 2013.

- AGÊNCIA NACIONAL DE ÁGUAS. Inventário das estações pluviométricas. 2. ed. Brasília, DF: ANA: SGH, 2009. 332 p.

- ASSIS, F. N.; ARRUDA, H. V.; PEREIRA, A. R. Aplicações de estatística a climatologia. Pelotas: UFPEL, 1996. 161 p.

- ASSIS, J. P.; DIAS, C. T. S.; SILVA, A. R.; DOURADO NETO, D. Estatística descritiva. Piracicaba: FEALQ, 2016. 394 p.

- BEIJO, L. A.; MUNIZ, J. A.; CASTRO NETO, P. Tempo de retorno das precipitações máximas em Lavras (MG) pela distribuição de valores extremos do tipo I. Ciência & Agrotecnologia, Lavras, v. 29, n. 3, p. 657-667, 2005.

- BIRNBAUM, Z. W. Numerical tabulation of the distribution of Kolmogorov's statistic for finite sample size. Journalofthe American StatisticalAssociation, New York, v. 47, n. 259, p. 425-441, 1952.

- CERÓN, W.; KAYANO, M. T.; ANDREOLI, R. V.; DIAZ, A. J. A.; AYES, I.; FREITAS, E. D.; MARTINS, J. A.; SOUZA, R. A. F. Recent intensification of extreme precipitation events in the La Plata Basin in Southern South America (1981-2018). Atmospheric Resear...

- CHOI, Y.; KANG, J.; KIM, J. Urban flood adaptation planning for local governments: Hydrology analysis and optimization. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Londres, v. 59, n. 2, p. 102213, 2021.

- CHUVA provoca caos nas ruas de Volta Redonda que estão tomadas por mato e lama. Diário do Vale, Volta Redonda, 8 abr.2019. Availableat: https://diariodovale.com.br/tempo-real/chuva-provoca-caos-nas-ruas-de-volta-redonda-que-estao-tomadas-por-mato-e-la...

- COELHO, A. C.; ZUFFO, A. C. Macrodrenagem urbana: comparativode hidrogramas gerados pelo métodoprecipitação vazão, SoilConservationService (SCS), entre duas equações dechuva de boa confiabilidade. Revista DAE, São Paulo, v. 69, n. 233, p. 37-47, 2021.

- COSTA, L. F.; FARIAS JÚNIOR, J. E. F.; JOHNSON, R. M. F.; PETRUNGARO, A. C. N.; RAMOS, N. P. Análise da precipitação da bacia do Rio Paraíba do Sul com enfoque nos anos de 2014 a 2017. In: SIMPÓSIO DE RECURSOS HÍDRICOS DA BACIA DO RIO PARAÍBA DO SUL, ...

- ESPINOZA, N.S.; SANTOS, C.A.C.; SILVA, M.T.; GOMES, H.B.; FERREIRA, R.R.; SILVA, M.L.; SILVA, C.M.S.; OLIVEIRA, C.P.; MEDEIROS, J.; GIOVANNETTONE, J.; AMARO, V.E.; SANTOS, C.A.G.; MISHRA, M. Landslides triggered by the May 2017 extreme rainfall event ...

- FARIAS, H.S.; ALVES, G.F.S. Caracterização espacial e temporal da precipitação na Costa Verde Fluminense - 2001 a 2016. Geo UERJ, Rio de Janeiro, v. 34, p. e.40955, 2019.

- GENOVEZ, A.M. Hidrologia Aplicada: bacias hidrográficas. Campinas: Faculdade de Engenharia Civil da UNICAMP, 2010. 35 p.

- GENOVEZ, A. M.; ZUFFO, A. C.; BORRI GENOVEZ, A. I. Relação entre chuvas intensas de diferentes durações e avaliação das equações de chuvas intensas generalizadas. In: CONGRESO LATINO AMERICANO DE HIDRÁULICA, 16., 1994, Santiago. Anais […]. Santiago: I...

- GOCIC, M.; TRAJKOVIC, S. Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change, Amesterdã, v. 100, n. 1, p. 172-182, 2013.

- GUMBEL, E. J. Statistics of extremes. New York: Columbia University, 1958. 375 p.

- KENDALL, M. G. Rank correlation methods. London: Griffin, 1975. 202 p.

- KOURTIS, I. M.; TSIHRINTZIS, V. A. Adaptation of urban drainage networks to climate change: A review. Science ofthe Total Environment, Londres, v. 771, n. 3, p. 145431, 2021.

- LANA, J. C.; MONTANDON, L. F. Influência da pluviosidade na deflagração de movimentos de massa na região Sul Fluminense. Revista Técnico-Científica do CREA-PR, Curitiba, v.especial, p. 1-13, 2018.

- LIEBLEIN, J. On the exact evaluation of the variances and covariances of order statistics in samples from the extreme-value distribution. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Ann Arbor, v. 24, n. 2, p. 282-287, 1953.

- LIMA, A. O.; LYRA, G. B.; ABREU, M. C.; OLIVEIRA-JÚNIOR, J. F.; ZERID, M.; CUNHA-ZERI, G. Extreme rainfall events over Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil: Characterization using probability distribution functions and clustering analysis. Atmospheric Researc...

- MANN, H. B. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, Chicago, v.13, n. 3, p. 245-259, 1945.

- MARENGO, J. A.; ALVES, L. M.; AMBRIZZI, T.; YOUNG, A.; BARRETO, N. J. C.; RAMOS, A. M. Trends in extreme rainfall and hydrogeometeorological disasters in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo: a review. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, New Yor...

- MATTOS, V. C.; SILVA, T. M. Ocorrência de chuvas extremas e desencadeamento de eventos geomorfológicos no litoral Sul Fluminense. Revista de Geografia, Juiz de Fora, v. 6, n. 1, p. 1-15, 2016.

- MENDES, R. M.; ANDRADE, M. R. M.; TOMASELLA, J.; MORAES, M. A. E.; SCOFIELD, G. B. Understanding shallow landslides in Campos do Jordão municipality – Brazil: disentangling the anthropic effects from natural causes in the disaster of 2000. Natural Haz...

- PEREZ, L. P.; RODRIGUES-FILHO, S.; MARENGO, J. A.; SANTOS, D. V.; MIKOSZ, L. Mudanças climáticas e desastres: análise das desigualdades regionais no Brasil. Sustainability in Debate, Brasília, DF, v. 11, n. 3, p. 278-296, 2020.

- RODRIGUES, A. L. M.; REIS, G. B.; SANTOS, M. T.; SILVA, D. D.; SANTOS, V. J.; CASTRO, J. S.; CALIJURI, M. L. Influence of land use and land cover’s change on the hydrological regime at a Brazilian southeast urbanized watershed. Environmental Earth Sci...

- SENTELHAS, P. C.; CRUCIANI, D. E.; PEREIRA, A. S.; VILLA NOVA, N. A. Distribuição horáriade chuvas intensas de curtaduração: um subsídio ao dimensionamento de projetos de drenagem superficial. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, São José dos Campos, v...

- SICILIANO, W. C.; BASTOS, G. P.; OLIVEIRA, I. T.; SILVA, G. N.; OBRACZKA, M.; OHNUMA, A. A. Variabilidade espacial e temporal da precipitação pluvial no município do Rio de Janeiro. Revista Internacional de Ciências, Rio de Janeiro, v. 8, n. 2, p. 221...

- SHAPIRO, S. S.; WILK, M. B. Analysisofvariancetest for normality: complete samples. Biometrika, Londres, v. 52, n. 4, p. 591-611, 1965.

- TERASSI, P. M. B.; OLIVEIRA JÚNIOR, J. F.; GOIS, G.; SOBRAL, B. S.; GALVANI, E.; BIFFI, V. H. R. Analysis of daily rainfall and spatiotemporal trends of extreme rainfall at Paraná Slope of the Itararé Watershed, Brazil. Revista Brasileira de Meteorolo...

- WEISS, L.L. Ratio of true to fixed-interval maximum rainfall. Journal of the Hydraulics Division, New York, v. 90, n. HY1, p. 77-82, 1964.

- ZUFFO, A. C.; LEME, P. E. GRADEX e Santa Bárbara – método híbrido para cálculo de vazão de projeto para macrodrenagem urbana. In: CONGRESSO LATINOAMERICANO DE HIDRÁULICA, 21., 2004, São Pedro. Anais [...]. São Pedro: International Association for Hydr...

Table of Contents

HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS IN VOLTA REDONDA

HUGO THANER DOS SANTOS1 E SERGIO NASCIMENTO DUARTE2

1ABSTRACT

SANTOS, H.T.; DUARTE, S.N.

CHUVAS INTENSAS EM VOLTA REDONDA

2 RESUMO

3 INTRODUCTION

4 MATERIALS AND METHODS

4.1. Investigating heavy rainfall events in Volta Redonda and determining its maximum daily rainfall rates

4.2. Time trend analysis

4.3. Theoretical probability distribution of maximum rainfall events

4.4. Calculation of heavy rainfall for durations shorter than, or equal to, 24 hours

5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Figure 1.Annual maximum daily rainfall (in blue) and 5-year moving average (in red), Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

Table 1.Mann-Kendall trend test for 5-year moving mean applied to maximum daily rainfall events, Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

Table 2.Gumbel distribution equation coefficients,Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil. Data from 1944 to 2019.

Figure 2.Gumbel distribution of annual maximum daily rainfalls, Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

T – return period; t – rainfall event duration

Table 4.Rainfall intensity (mm h-1) based on duration and return period, Volta Redonda County, RJ, Brazil.

6 CONCLUSIONS

7 REFERENCES

AGEVAP. Plano integrado de recursos hídricos da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Paraíba do Sul e planos de ação de recursos hídricos das bacias afluentes. Resende: AGEVAP, 2013. 149 p.

ALVARES, C. A.; STAPE, J. L.; SENTELHAS, P. C.; GONÇALVES, J. L. M.; SPAROVEK, G. Köppen's climate classification map for Brazil. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Berlin, v. 22, n. 6, p. 711-728, 2013.

AGÊNCIA NACIONAL DE ÁGUAS. Inventário das estações pluviométricas. 2. ed. Brasília, DF: ANA: SGH, 2009. 332 p.

ASSIS, F. N.; ARRUDA, H. V.; PEREIRA, A. R. Aplicações de estatística a climatologia. Pelotas: UFPEL, 1996. 161 p.

ASSIS, J. P.; DIAS, C. T. S.; SILVA, A. R.; DOURADO NETO, D. Estatística descritiva. Piracicaba: FEALQ, 2016. 394 p.

BEIJO, L. A.; MUNIZ, J. A.; CASTRO NETO, P. Tempo de retorno das precipitações máximas em Lavras (MG) pela distribuição de valores extremos do tipo I. Ciência & Agrotecnologia, Lavras, v. 29, n. 3, p. 657-667, 2005.

BIRNBAUM, Z. W. Numerical tabulation of the distribution of Kolmogorov's statistic for finite sample size. Journalofthe American StatisticalAssociation, New York, v. 47, n. 259, p. 425-441, 1952.

CERÓN, W.; KAYANO, M. T.; ANDREOLI, R. V.; DIAZ, A. J. A.; AYES, I.; FREITAS, E. D.; MARTINS, J. A.; SOUZA, R. A. F. Recent intensification of extreme precipitation events in the La Plata Basin in Southern South America (1981-2018). Atmospheric Resear...

CHOI, Y.; KANG, J.; KIM, J. Urban flood adaptation planning for local governments: Hydrology analysis and optimization. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Londres, v. 59, n. 2, p. 102213, 2021.

CHUVA provoca caos nas ruas de Volta Redonda que estão tomadas por mato e lama. Diário do Vale, Volta Redonda, 8 abr.2019. Availableat: https://diariodovale.com.br/tempo-real/chuva-provoca-caos-nas-ruas-de-volta-redonda-que-estao-tomadas-por-mato-e-la...

COELHO, A. C.; ZUFFO, A. C. Macrodrenagem urbana: comparativode hidrogramas gerados pelo métodoprecipitação vazão, SoilConservationService (SCS), entre duas equações dechuva de boa confiabilidade. Revista DAE, São Paulo, v. 69, n. 233, p. 37-47, 2021.

COSTA, L. F.; FARIAS JÚNIOR, J. E. F.; JOHNSON, R. M. F.; PETRUNGARO, A. C. N.; RAMOS, N. P. Análise da precipitação da bacia do Rio Paraíba do Sul com enfoque nos anos de 2014 a 2017. In: SIMPÓSIO DE RECURSOS HÍDRICOS DA BACIA DO RIO PARAÍBA DO SUL, ...

ESPINOZA, N.S.; SANTOS, C.A.C.; SILVA, M.T.; GOMES, H.B.; FERREIRA, R.R.; SILVA, M.L.; SILVA, C.M.S.; OLIVEIRA, C.P.; MEDEIROS, J.; GIOVANNETTONE, J.; AMARO, V.E.; SANTOS, C.A.G.; MISHRA, M. Landslides triggered by the May 2017 extreme rainfall event ...

FARIAS, H.S.; ALVES, G.F.S. Caracterização espacial e temporal da precipitação na Costa Verde Fluminense - 2001 a 2016. Geo UERJ, Rio de Janeiro, v. 34, p. e.40955, 2019.

GENOVEZ, A.M. Hidrologia Aplicada: bacias hidrográficas. Campinas: Faculdade de Engenharia Civil da UNICAMP, 2010. 35 p.

GENOVEZ, A. M.; ZUFFO, A. C.; BORRI GENOVEZ, A. I. Relação entre chuvas intensas de diferentes durações e avaliação das equações de chuvas intensas generalizadas. In: CONGRESO LATINO AMERICANO DE HIDRÁULICA, 16., 1994, Santiago. Anais […]. Santiago: I...

GOCIC, M.; TRAJKOVIC, S. Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change, Amesterdã, v. 100, n. 1, p. 172-182, 2013.

GUMBEL, E. J. Statistics of extremes. New York: Columbia University, 1958. 375 p.

KENDALL, M. G. Rank correlation methods. London: Griffin, 1975. 202 p.

KOURTIS, I. M.; TSIHRINTZIS, V. A. Adaptation of urban drainage networks to climate change: A review. Science ofthe Total Environment, Londres, v. 771, n. 3, p. 145431, 2021.

LANA, J. C.; MONTANDON, L. F. Influência da pluviosidade na deflagração de movimentos de massa na região Sul Fluminense. Revista Técnico-Científica do CREA-PR, Curitiba, v.especial, p. 1-13, 2018.

LIEBLEIN, J. On the exact evaluation of the variances and covariances of order statistics in samples from the extreme-value distribution. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Ann Arbor, v. 24, n. 2, p. 282-287, 1953.

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